There are a few good races left as we head into the last fortnight of the regular season. In the ML, Boston and New York are fighting for the Banks Division crown, with the team that falls short still leading in what will be a close wild card race with Vienna and from-out-of-nowhere Chessie. The WL, meanwhile, features all the excitement of paint drying as all three divisions are all but wrapped up (in fact, Spalding clinched the Foxx in June, as we recall). There’s a mildly interesting wild card contest between Homer and Bradford, who trails by 3 games. This time around, we’ll go through the rankings and then hit our playoff predictions. These predictions come from the same people who predicted that Superior would win the Foxx, so keep in mind the fact that we are morons as you read our picks. We will point out that while we might lament the fact that Spalding and Falls Church can’t meet in the World Series, and no ML team seems to match either of them, the ML did win the interleague matchup this year, so let’s not be so sure that the ML doesn’t have what it takes to win the crown.
1. Spalding Aeros – Previous Ranking: 1 (-) –
Chris Huckstep and Scott Puffer are a combined 39-6 this season, each making his own case to take the CAHMWLPOTY award away from David Toon this season (Huckstep has more wins, but Puffer has the better overall numbers). Now add John Nissen to the mix, and suddenly this pitching staff turns into one of the league’s best, which is something we don’t recall ever saying about a Spalding staff. We still recall this as the staff led by Jerry Virgin and his 20-wins and 4.50 ERA.
2. Falls Church Frenzy – Previous Ranking: 2 (-) –
You don’t hear all that much about him, but what really makes the Frenzy offense go (they’ve scored the second most runs in the league this season) is their leadoff man Chris McDill, who has a .382 OBP against right-handed pitching and 67 stolen bases. But it’s a good thing that the Frenzy don’t face too many lefties in the DiMaggio (only 28 total games against lefties this year) because McDill’s OBP drops to .266 against southpaws.
3. Bowie Knives – Previous Ranking: 7 (+4) –
The step down from the Aeros and Frenzy is a big one, but the Knives have impressed as one of the league’s best teams in the second half of the season. Keep in mind this a team that was ranked #17 in our early-season edition of the power rankings. If you want to pin this turnaround on a single player, because you are simplistic like that and ignore the intricacies of a team game, then look no further than Herb Matthias. In the first 3 months of the season, Matthias had an OPS of .735, .655, and .586. But since the start of July, he’s hit .361 and has a .952 OPS. If the first half of his season had been like the second half, we’d be talking about him for MVP.
4. Boston Big Digs – Previous Ranking: 3 (-1) –
Neither Boston nor New York is coming up big in September so far. Boston maintains the upper hand in the division race, but needs more from several key members if their lineup. Ricardo Saenz, Santiago Barraza, John Coffin, and Rob Weber are hitting a combined .123 in each of their last 5 games. Those are batters 1, 2, 4, and 5 in their lineup. If that trend continues, Boston won’t just blow their lead in the division, they’ll lose the wild card, too.
5. New York Empire – Previous Ranking: 5 (-) –
While the Boston hitters are struggling, the New York starting pitchers are doing the same. Starters Vinny Huertas, Ken Araujo, and Ryan Wolcott are a combined 0-7 with a 6.56 ERA. And rookie of the year candidate Mark Samuels, who was 7-6 with a 2.34 ERA at the end of July, has tanked as the season has concluded, 1-5 with a 4.93 ERA in his last 9 starts. Only ace Melvin Allshouse seems to be holding this pitching staff together.
6. Biloxi Hurricanes – Previous Ranking: 8 (+2) –
On the season, Biloxi has scored a whopping 6 runs more than they have allowed, and yet barring a total collapse this team is poised to win their division easily. The season-ending injury to 22 year-old phenom Chad Nieman really hurt the Canes. His replacement is 21 year-old Willie Coffey, who is 0-3 with a 7.11 ERA in September. His poor performance aside, it’s always nice to see a young player like that get his chance at a (giggle) cup of (giggle) Coffey (giggle) in the big leagues (giggle).
7. Homer Yetis – Previous Ranking: 12 (+5) –
The Yetis are in good shape to actually make one of our predictions come true and win the wild card. The Yetis also take home the award for league-worst pinch hitter in Scott “Stump” Murray, who has 5 hits in 35 pinch hitting appearances (.143 average) this season. In August and September, he has an OPS of .276 and .258, respectively. But lousy pinch hitting aside, this is a pitching team, with the 3rd best staff in the league, and a good pitching staff can be very scary in a short playoff series.
8. St. Boni Bashers – Previous Ranking: 9 (+1) –
St. Boni still enjoys a 5-game lead in the Gibson, but their hopes of advancing far into the playoffs could be in jeopardy if Park Seung-Yeop doesn’t emerge from his slump. He’s 2-4 with a 7.18 ERA in his last 6 starts, and is 4-9 with a 5.24 ERA since the start of July. And this is a guy with a WHIP under 1 for his previous 4 seasons, so the Bashers were clearly counting on him to win some games in the postseason.
9. Vienna Buzz – Previous Ranking: 4 (-5) –
The Buzz take a fall in this edition of the rankings because they’re currently 3rd in their division and 3rd in the ML wild card standings. But they stay in the top-10 because they are the unluckiest team in the league. If the world were run by Pythagoras, Vienna would have the best record in all of the ML, not trailing Bowie by 7.5 games in the Musial. But the Buzz have lost a league-high 30 one-run games, winning only 19. A lot of their top hitters just come up small in close/late situations: Arias – .588 OPS, Skipworth – .571 OPS, Fogel – .652 OPS, Rivero – .642 OPS, Harvey – .694 OPS, and, worst of all, Blanck – .373 OPS.
10. Bradford Bulls – Previous Ranking: 6 (-4) –
The middle of the lineup has carried this team all year. Matt Sheedy is a legitimate MVP candidate, with a .545 slugging percentage and 18 stolen bases. Paul Edgintton, John Witzel, and Pete Tondreau have all been great too. But the Bulls’ pitching staff will be what keeps them from the playoffs (unless they can make up their 3-game deficit to Homer in the wild card), where only Byron Dodgen and Bill Ortiz have been acceptable in the starting rotation.
11. Chessie Ironhorse – Previous Ranking: 19 (+8) –
Chessie takes a huge jump up the power rankings as one of the league’s hottest teams. Their record puts them a game ahead of Vienna now (1.5 games out of the ML wild card), but we couldn’t bring ourselves to rank them ahead of Vienna when their Pythagorean says they should have a sub-.500 record right now. Still, this team is a real contender right now for that last playoff spot, and if they take it, a lot of the credit should go to Bernardo Gonzales, who is 4-0 with a 1.63 ERA in September, striking out 22 while only walking 4.
12. Orchard Park Blizzard – Previous Ranking: 10 (-2) –
With Orchard Park coming in at #12, the entire Musial Division is in the top half of the power rankings. The Blizzard are 4.5 games out of the wild card, and with 3 teams ahead of them that looks almost insurmountable. The Blizzard have scored the 5th-most runs in the league despite not having any star hitter. And they have allowed the 8th most runs in the league largely because of not having any star pitcher.
13. Chattooga Eagles – Previous Ranking: 11 (-2) –
The Eagles sit 5 games back in a weak Gibson Division, still mathematically alive but realistically probably not. But Walter Brindle will do his best to try to will the Eagles into the playoffs. If they do pull off the unlikely, Brindle’s 5 home runs and 16 RBI (.600 slugging percentage) so far in September could be the starting point for a memorable, but we have a feeling that the memorable part of Brindle’s season will be the 3-month span from June to August when he had a .340 slugging percentage and only 8 home runs and 23 RBI in 291 at-bats. Not much of a follow-up to his all-star performance last year.
14. Superior Moo – Previous Ranking: 13 (-1) –
Our preseason pick to win the Banks, the Moo stand a mere 24.5 games out of first. If we were to pick out one reason for this failure, as we are wont to do, it would have to be pitcher Guadalupe Tovar’s .016 batting average. (Does the analytical skill we displayed there help explain how we were so wrong in our preseason prediction for the Foxx?) More seriously, the Moo were expecting a whole lot more from Mike Linscott, who has had an OPS over .800 for the last 4 seasons before tanking this season, making almost 7 million dollars to post a .568 OPS.
15. St. Paul Stogies – Previous Ranking: 15 (-) –
The Stogies’ downfall this season? Well, they were 60-56 against right-handed pitching, but an ugly 10-24 against lefties. The best explanation for that lies with their cleanup hitter, Erik Eno. Against righties Eno has given the Stogies their free agent money’s worth, with a .878 OPS. But while Eno has always hit better against righties, he has always held his own against lefties, and had a .789 OPS against southpaws last year. This year he has a .589 OPS against lefties.
16. South Beach Sunburn – Previous Ranking: 20 (+4) –
The Sunburn actually have a pretty good record lately and find themselves only a game below .500, but fans of the old-time Sunburn glory should hold off in their excitement of their team’s impending resurgence, because according to Pythagoras this team should be 11 games under .500. Eric Quinn keeps getting on base and giving this offense a chance, but no matter how many times we tell him, he will just not stay put on first base, and it hurts his team. He’s been caught stealing 45 times now in the last two years, successful in less than 60% of his attempts.
17. Halifax Atlantics – Previous Ranking: 14 (-3) –
Halifax might boast one of the worst contract extensions in recent memory. Following the 1969 season, Quam got a 3-year extension paying him 5.65 million dollars a year. His return on that investment? In 1970 he went 2-9 with a 6.81 ERA in 15 starts before earning a demotion to AAA (where he did quite well, actually, 9-2 with a 1.35 ERA). He got back to the majors last year and had a 4.98 ERA, mostly out of the bullpen. And he’s won a starting job again this year and has a 4.96 ERA. And he’s heading into free agency on a high note (as in, a high ERA), with a 15.92 ERA over his last 4 starts.
18. Latrobe Lightning – Previous Ranking: 22 (+4) –
Ok, we were a bit hasty in giving out the league’s worst pinch hitter award to Scott Murray. We forgot some strong competition from Latrobe’s Tony Anderson, who has a .164 OBP coming off the bench, yet has somehow managed to accumulate 55 pinch hitting plate appearances. Happily, Anderson is at least only being paid the league minimum.
19. Cold Blitz – Previous Ranking: 17 (-2) –
Well, as he was struggling earlier in the season, we suggested that Tom Scranton needed a day off, and he’s been given a lot of days off, relegated to only 76 at-bats since the start of July. And he’s been great in that time, with a .618 slugging percentage. Next year is Scranton’s contract year, and we’re predicting right now that he’s poised to have a breakout year and really earn himself a big payday. Unfortunately for Scranton, we suck at predictions.
20. Honshu Nymphs – Previous Ranking: 21 (+1) –
Honshu must have been the only bad team to actually add players at the trade deadline, trading for Adam Wigginton. They were able to get rid of the contract for Clifton Derouen in the process (Derouen was poised to make about 3 million a year for the next 14 years, playing largely in AAA). Wigginton is giving Nymphs fans reason to hope for next year, recently breaking out of his long slump with 5 home runs in 52 September at-bats after hitting the same number in 201 at-bats in July and August.
21. Melbourne Mosquitoes – Previous Ranking: 23 (+2) –
The Bugs have actually played fairly well lately, now only 29.5 games out of first place. Despite another fine season from Roscoe Cribb, offense was this team’s undoing, as they are next-to-last in runs scored in the league. Anyway, we will use this space to mourn the loss of retiring Billy Long. The Bugs have let Long go out with a bang, giving him the 264 plate appearances he needs to really show the world what a pathetic shell of his former first-round-pick self he is these days. His .383 OPS this year really ranks him among the worst seasons in the history of this league.
22. St. Louis Assault – Previous Ranking: 18 (-4) –
Poor Barry Keith has to be wondering if he’ll ever win another game. The kid hasn’t won since July 9. Since then he’s gone 0-7 with a 5.53 ERA. His biggest problem? He’s not good enough to play in the majors. That one little problem has really hampered his major league career.
23. Medicine Hat Juffowup – Previous Ranking: 16 (-7) –
It’s been all bad for Medicine Hat since the all-star break, since when this team’s inability to hit or pitch has been problematic. This season has seen a lot of rookies for Medicine Hat get a chance at the big leagues and fail. These are some good prospects, who maybe were rushed into the bigs. It’s hard to pick which kid has been the bigger rookie bust, first baseman Billy Sabol (.543 OPS in 519 plate appearances for the former #6 overall pick) or gabe Newman (4-17 with a 7.97 ERA in 28 starts).
24. Texas Timewarp – Previous Ranking: 24 (-) –
Texas was certainly the most active terrible team at the deadline, trading away all of their pieces of any value (Wigginton, Miguel Arispe, and Jaime Sorrell, notably). It will still be quite a while before this team is competitive again, because this is by far the least talented team in the league, with both the fewest runs scored and the most runs allowed.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Before making our predictions, we will once again impress upon you our predictive capability by going over our preseason predictions:
DiMaggio – Falls Church. We got this right, but a blind squirrel could have found this particular nut.
Foxx – Superior. With Spalding missing the wild card. Um, yeah, right.
Feller – St. Louis. Currently ranked #22 in the power rankings. Yeah, good call there.
WL wild card – Homer. That looks like it might be a good call, but we had them just barely edging Spalding out.
Musial – Orchard Park. Currently in last place in the division (but the league’s best last-place team)
Banks – Boston. Might actually get this one right.
Gibson – Chattooga. They’re 5 games out of first, so it wasn’t THAT bad a pick.
ML wild card – New York. Might get that right too.
So all we are saying is, don’t put a lot of stock on the predictions that come spewing out of our pens.
Anyway, without knowing exactly who will be playing who in the playoffs, we’ll just make general predictions:
- There will not be any surprise upsets in the WL. The Frenzy will play the Aeros in the WLCS, both easily getting by their first-round opponent.
- Despite the worst record of any ML playoff team, St. Boni will pull off a first-round upset.
- John Nissen wins game 7 to put the Aeros past the Frenzy and into the World Series.
- Roger Summerfield wins the MLCS MVP and leads Boston to the World Series.
- The Aeros take all of 4 games to win the World Series.
So the big question for the playoffs is, is the fact that we are predicting a big win for the Aeros going to result in them getting upset in the first round? We remind you that we suck at predictions.